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The Irish HPV Maths Vaccination Contest

Select correct answers below after performing calculations based on the following official statistics:
- Starting from 2010, 30000 girls aged 12 will be vaccinated each year (Source: www.rte.ie)
- An annual mortality figure from cervical cancer of 81 when no screening or no vaccination occurs
  (2007 figure -Source: www.hse.ie)
- The average age of cervical cancer diagnosis in Ireland is 44.
   (Source: Health Information and Quality Authority www.hiqa.ie ).
- The average age of mortality (as a result of cervical cancer) in Ireland is 56 years (Source: www.hiqa.ie).
- Starting from 2010, the new national cervical cancer screening program (ie Pap testing) can,
   by itself, expect to prevent 80% of cervical cancer deaths (i.e excluding effect of vaccination).
   (Source: www.cervicalcheck.ie )
- Assume a constant total female population in Ireland of 2,170,000 (Source: www.cso.ie)
- HPV Vaccine only prevents 70% incidence of cervical cancer (Source: www.hse.ie)

What is the first year in which it is possible that a cervical cancer death may be prevented due to the effect of the new annual HPV mass vaccination campaign alone? (Assuming protection from vaccine lasts for full lifetime and the age of death is 56).
Hint: Average age of girls getting vaccinated annually is 12. 2011
2016
2024
2054

What is the first year in which it is statistically likely that a cervical cancer death may be prevented due to the effect of the new annual HPV mass vaccination campaign alone? (Assuming protection from the vaccine lasts for full lifetime and the average age of death is 56).
Hint: First need to exclude those lives (from the annual number vaccinated) that will have been saved by the�screening programme (80%). Then need to factor in rate of vaccine effectiveness (70%) for the rest. You then have the 'protected by vaccine alone' ('PbVA') number. If you know the rate of death from cervical cancer (1 in ??) then you can work out how many years need to pass so there will be enough people in the 'PbVA' category to make 1 death statistically likely (say for example, '8 yrs'). This '1-death' group has to have an average age of '56' however, so, for our example, the 8 years will cover ages 52 - 60. So, the question is in this example, what year does age 60 correspond to? (Remember, average age of girls getting vaccinated annually is 12).
2016
2030
2044
2057

The professor who led the clinical trials on the HPV vaccine 'Gardasil' (used for the Mass Vaccination) stated that we can assume that it's protection against disease can only last for 10 years*.
In this case, what is the maximum number of cervical cancer deaths which will be prevented annually in Ireland due to the effect of the HPV mass vaccination campaign alone (if the age of diagnosis of cervical cancer is 44).
Hint: Average age of girls getting vaccinated annually is 12
(*Source:http://www.cervicalhealth.com/Summer2007/hottopic.php).
0
52
81
100

In the US, 3.5mil* schoolgirls aged 13-17 have been vaccinated with the HPV Vaccine 'Gardasil'.
As a result of receiving this vaccine, 2992 visits to a hospital Emergency Room were reported** (for this age group) due to a severe reaction.
In an Irish context, with 30 thousand schoolkids due to receive the same vaccine in 2010, how many visits to an Irish ER can we expect to see this year resulting from this vaccination?
(Sources: *www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/healthday/639753.html **Official government Adverse Reactions Reporting System ('VAERs'), seewww.medalerts.org/index.html)

7
17
27
47

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Winner will be drawn at random from entries who have answered all questions correctly