Latest Gardasil Bodycount - 'Rate of Suffering' Index applied to Irish Victim Prediction.

Adverse Reactions now number over 19,500 on US tracking system.

ComeLook.org, Last Updated 1 Nov 2010

80 deaths now linked to Gardasil in VAERs system (Nov 2010)
To check the latest Gardasil victim stats as recorded in the US FDA tracking system (VAERs), do the following:
   - Go to http://www.medalerts.org/index.html
   - In VAERS search menu, click on the red SEARCH NOW button.
Search Criteria:
   1. Select Desired Reports: - Leave on default (“age”).
   2. Select Symptoms: - Leave on default “All Symptoms”
   3. Select Vaccine Information: - Select HPV4 (Gardasil)
   4  Select Event Characteristics: - Leave this empty
   5  Select Demographics: - Leave this on default ('All locations').
   6 Select Dates: - Do not select a date.
   *Click on find

Results of Sample Search Queries on 17 June 2010 (HPV4 = Gardasil)**:
  Found 71 events where Vaccine is HPV4 (Gardasil)  and Patient Died
  Found 18017 events where Vaccine is HPV4
  Found 7815 events where Vaccine is HPV4 and ER Visit .... Nearly half were on the same or following day of vaccination {3834 events where Onset Interval is 0 or 1 and Vaccine is HPV4 and ER Visit}
  Found 3652 events where Vaccine is HPV4 and Did Not Recover 
  Found 1791 events where Vaccine is HPV4 and Hospitalized
  Found 330 events where Vaccine is HPV4 and Life Threatening 
  Found 578 events where Vaccine is HPV4 and Disabled
 
Results based on Proximity of Adverse Reaction to Gardasil Vaccination
  Found 7288 events where Onset Interval is 0 (same day ) and Vaccine is HPV4
  Found 2 events where Onset Interval is 0 (same day ) and Vaccine is HPV4 and Patient Died
  Found 11 events where Onset Interval is within 5 days  and Vaccine is HPV4 and Patient Died
  Found 3834 events where Onset Interval is 0 or 1 (same or following day) and Vaccine is HPV4  and ER Visit resulted.



Not what the good doctor ordered?
The co-inventor of the HPV vaccine (Dr Frazer) says in this radio interview , that there is only a '1 in a million' chance of someone needing 'treatment' as a result of a Gardasil shot*.

We can do a quick sanity check on this claim as follows: 
A recent survey reported that only about one-third of American girls aged 13 to 17 have received the vaccine.  This age group accounts for 7% of the total US female population (= 10.5mil).
Do a search on VAERs for figures for 'ER visit' for age group 'over13 - under18' = >
Result: = "Found 2992 events"
From this we can calculate a Rate of 'Treatment required' index as follows:
Rate of 'Treatment required' = 2992/(10.5*0.33) =   2992 / 3483810 =  0.09%

Therefore, based on the official FDA Adverse reports system, (which receives reports for only a small fraction of actual Gardasil related ER visits), there is almost a 1 in a thousand chance of a trip to the ER following Gardasil vaccination.  Based on Dr. Frazer's prediction we would expect around 3 visits to the ER (instead of the 2992 reported above).  
Could he simply be using the term 'treatment' as a euphemism for the ultimate serious adverse reaction (i.e. death).  If so, he would need to increase his estimate by a factor of 700% (as we are seeing a mortality rate of 7 in a million for the 13-17 group^). 
So it sounds like he may be understating the issue of serious adverse reactions.  
Note that during this radio interview^ promoting Gardasil safety, Dr Frazer did not reveal his conflict of interest on the subject of patent royalties & research funding. 

Victim Prediction - 'Rate of Suffering' Index applied to Irish Context
By doing VAERs searches by age 13-17, we can calculate a Gardasil 'rate of suffering' index for each 'event category'.  
In an Irish context, for a HPV 'mass vax' of 30 thousand kids in 2010,  the Vaers figures translate to :
  27 'ER visits' (0.09%)
 12 will acquire 'Did not Recover' status (0.04%).
   2 will be 'Disabled' (0.007%)
   1 will be 'Life Threatening' (0.005%)

The FDA estimates that only about 10% of adverse reactions are reported. 
Therefore the above estimates are probably 10 times less than the actual expected figures. 
(If this is the case, then in reality we would also expect 2 deaths to occur each year (0.0007% *10)). 
  

Figure 2.

*Interviewed on Irish radio Monday, January 18th (forward to 1:09:40)
**VAERS receives reports for only a small fraction of actual adverse events .
^Vaers Result ="Found 24 events where Age is 13-or-more-and-under-18 and Vaccine is HPV4 and Patient Died"
Hat-tip to Janny Stokvis for pointing me to the NVIC database link to VAERs and instructions on how to search it.
Also thanks to Norma Erickson  for the businessweek.com link on US HPV vaccine % uptake.

Contact
justin@comelook.org

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